NBU key policy rate: what it is and how it affects your deposits, loans and bonds

What the key rate is, in plain words

The key policy rate is the main tool the National Bank of Ukraine uses to influence prices in the country. In essence, it is a benchmark for the cost of hryvnias: the interest at which banks can place spare funds with the NBU or borrow from it. Banks start from this benchmark when they set rates on your deposits and loans.

The NBU's goal is to keep inflation close to its 5% target. When prices rise faster, the NBU raises the rate: saving becomes more rewarding, borrowing more expensive, demand cools and inflation slows over time. When inflation is under control, the rate is cut so that loans get cheaper and the economy grows.

Why the NBU raised the rate to 16.5%

On 29 October 2026 the NBU raised the key rate from 16% to 16.5%, effective 30 October. The main reasons it gave:

• Inflation accelerated. In September prices were 10% higher than a year earlier, and core inflation, which excludes the most volatile components, was 8.8%.
• Inflation expectations worsened. When people and businesses expect prices to rise, they build that into prices and wages in advance.
• The hryvnia needs to stay attractive. A higher rate makes hryvnia deposits and bonds more rewarding than holding currency and stabilises the foreign exchange market.

Along with the decision, the NBU raised its inflation forecast: 12.5% at the end of 2026 instead of 10%, and 7.3% for 2027 instead of 6.9%. It expects inflation to return to the 5% target in 2028. The NBU's baseline scenario is to keep the rate at 16.5% until the second quarter of 2027, but it is ready to change course if the situation changes.

How the key rate has changed

After the full-scale invasion began, the NBU raised the rate to 25% to restrain inflation and protect the hryvnia. From mid-2023, as inflation slowed, the rate was gradually cut, falling to 13% in 2024. From December 2024, as inflation picked up again, the NBU started raising it once more.

How the rate reaches your money

An NBU decision does not change your deposit or loan immediately. It starts a chain in which each link reacts at its own pace.

1. 1The NBU changes the rateThe cost of money for banks changes: rates on NBU certificates of deposit and on the interbank market.
2. 2DepositsBanks gradually revise rates on new deposits, usually within a few weeks.
3. 3LoansNew loans become more or less expensive. The rate on an existing fixed-rate loan does not change.
4. 4Government bondsYields on new bonds follow the key rate.
5. 5Exchange rate and inflationA high rate makes the hryvnia more attractive and over time restrains price growth.

What it means for deposits

When the key rate rises, banks gradually raise rates on new deposits. The rate on a term deposit you already have is usually fixed in the contract and does not change until the end of the term, neither up nor down.

Compare the rate with inflation and only after tax: with 10% inflation, a deposit at 14% gives a real return of about 0.7% a year; how to calculate it precisely is explained in our article on inflation. How much your deposit will earn with compounding and top-ups is shown by the deposit calculator.

What it means for loans

For new loans, a higher key rate means more expensive money: banks build a higher cost of funding into the rate. A fixed-rate loan you already have does not change because of the NBU's decision. If your contract has a floating rate, that is, tied to an index, it may go up, so check the terms.

On a short loan the difference is small: UAH 581.52 over a year. On a UAH 300,000 loan over three years, the same 1 percentage point already costs UAH 5,524.03. The longer the term and the larger the amount, the more the rate affects you. How a payment is built up and how annuity differs from equal principal payments is explained in “Annuity or equal principal payments”.

What it means for government bonds

Yields on new government bonds follow the key rate. A bond you have already bought keeps its yield until maturity. So when the rate is high and expected to fall later, buying longer bonds lets you “lock in” a high income. Income from government bonds is tax-free for individuals, so at the same rate they pay more than a deposit. A detailed comparison is in “Deposit or government bonds”.

The exchange rate and prices

A high key rate supports the hryvnia: hryvnia savings become more rewarding, and people have fewer reasons to switch to currency. The rate restrains inflation not immediately but with a noticeable lag, so the NBU makes decisions by looking at its forecast several quarters ahead, not just the latest data.

What to do now

• Compare deposits and government bonds after tax and inflation. A high key rate is a good moment for hryvnia savings at interest.
• Don't rush into new loans you can do without: they are expensive right now. If a loan is necessary, compare the real annual interest rate at several banks.
• Check whether your loan has a floating rate. If it does, work out how the payment would change in the loan calculator.
• Consider repaying an expensive loan early: every hryvnia repaid sooner saves interest at the loan's rate.
• Keep your emergency fund in a separate account at interest. Right now it also earns a noticeable income.

When the next decision is

The NBU makes key rate decisions on a schedule it publishes in advance. The next monetary policy meeting is on 17 December 2026. On 9 November the NBU will publish a summary of the board members' discussion before the October decision: it shows how unanimous the decision was and what to expect next. We will update this article after every rate change.

In short

• From 30 October 2026 the NBU key rate is 16.5%, up from 16%.
• The reason is inflation accelerating to 10% in September and worse expectations. The inflation forecast for the end of 2026 is 12.5%, and the NBU expects to reach the 5% target in 2028.
• The NBU plans to keep the rate at 16.5% until the second quarter of 2027.
• Deposits and government bonds remain rewarding, new loans expensive. The decision does not change fixed-rate loans.
• +1 percentage point on a UAH 300,000 three-year loan means UAH 5,524.03 more interest; on a UAH 100,000 deposit, UAH 770 more income a year after tax.
• The next decision is due on 17 December 2026.

Figures in this article

• Personal income tax18%
  from January 1, 2016 · State Tax Service
• Military levy on salaries and interest5%
  from December 1, 2024 · State Tax Service
• Inflation in September 2026, year on year10%
  September 2026 · NBU
• NBU key policy rate16.5%
  from October 30, 2026 · NBU

Figures checked against sources on October 29, 2026. If a figure changes, we update the article and its update date changes automatically.

Sources

1. National Bank of Ukraine - decision to raise the key policy rate to 16.5% (29.10.2026)
2. Fakty ICTV - NBU raised the key rate to 16.5%: inflation forecast, rate path and next meeting date (in Ukrainian)
3. Interfax-Ukraine - the NBU raised the rate to 15.5% on 30 July 2026 (in Ukrainian)
4. LB.ua - the NBU raised the key rate to 16% (17.09.2026) (in Ukrainian)
5. Ekonomichna Pravda - Ukraine's key rate: changes in 2024-2026 (in Ukrainian)
6. Bankchart - NBU key rate in 2023 and 2024 (in Ukrainian)
7. National Bank of Ukraine - comment on inflation in September 2026 (in Ukrainian)

This article is for information only and is not financial advice. NBU forecasts may change, and the rates of individual banks depend on their own policies. Before taking a loan or opening a deposit, compare the terms of several banks.