Financial security

Ponzi schemes and fake investment projects: how to spot them before you hand over money

A Ponzi or pyramid scheme gives itself away by where the payouts come from: profit is promised for the deposit itself and for the people you bring in, and it is paid out of new participants' money. Checking takes 10 minutes: look for a licence in the NSSMC or NBU registers, scan the NSSMC list of questionable projects, which already holds 477 names, and convert the promise into an annual rate. Income of 1% a day means over 3,600% a year, and no honest business earns that kind of money.

Illustration for «Ponzi schemes and fake investment projects: how to spot them before you hand over money»

What a financial pyramid is

Since 2024 Ukrainian law has had a definition: a financial pyramid is fraud, or actions with signs of fraud, in which participants are promised passive income whose payment or size depends on attracting new investors. The rule sits in Article 158 of the law «On Capital Markets and Organised Commodity Markets». The definition covers creating the scheme, running it and promoting it, including through the media.

The mechanics never change. The organiser collects money, hands part of it to the first participants as «profit» and keeps the rest. The first payouts are real, and they are exactly what convinces the next wave. While more new money comes in than has to be paid out, the scheme lives. As soon as the inflow slows, payouts stop and the organisers disappear with whatever is left.

The scheme is named after Charles Ponzi, who in Boston in 1920 promised 50% profit in 45 days from supposedly reselling international postal reply coupons. He bought almost no coupons. He paid old investors with new investors' money. The largest pyramid in history was Bernard Madoff's: it ran for decades, and in 2009 a US court sentenced him to 150 years in prison. Compensation to victims was still being paid 16 years after the scheme was exposed.

How a pyramid differs from investing and from network marketing

Money is at risk in honest investments too: stocks fall, bonds can lose value, companies go bankrupt. The difference lies in the source of income and in who is responsible for your money. A legal instrument earns from the real economy, and its risks are described in documents. A pyramid earns only from new participants.

A legal investment, network marketing and a pyramid
QuestionLegal investmentNetwork marketingFinancial pyramid
Where income comes fromInterest, dividends, growth in company valueSelling real goods to end customersNew participants' contributions
Is income guaranteedOnly on bonds and deposits, and it is moderateNo, it depends on salesYes, high and steady
Who supervisesThe NBU or the NSSMC; there is a licence and a contractAn ordinary registered, tax-paying companyNobody; the company is offshore or unregistered
Can you get outSell, or wait for maturity under the rulesYes, you keep the goodsOnly while new money keeps coming

The line between network marketing and a pyramid runs through the product. If participants earn mostly by buying «starter packs» from one another, while nobody outside the network buys the product, those are already signs of a pyramid.

Five signs of a pyramid according to the NSSMC

In December 2025 the National Securities and Stock Market Commission approved a list of signs of a financial pyramid. It is not exhaustive, so a scheme may show only some of them, but each one is a signal to stop.

  1. An entry payment. To take part you must pay money or cryptocurrency. The payment may be called an «investment», a «package», a «starter kit» or the purchase of a product that is actually worth nothing.
  2. A reward simply for taking part. Income is promised because you put money in or «hold» a package, although no work or real activity stands behind it.
  3. Payouts from new participants' contributions. Existing participants are paid mainly with the money new ones have just paid in.
  4. No real business. The rewards are not linked to selling goods or services. If there is a product, it is only a cover.
  5. Income depends on bringing people in. The more people you bring, the more you get. Referral levels, «lines» and team bonuses are the typical look of this sign.

In practice the signs are checked with simple questions. Where does the promised income come from? What exactly does the project sell, and to whom? What happens to your payouts if no new people join tomorrow? If the answers are vague («arbitrage», «artificial intelligence», «the fund's closed strategy») or the conversation turns to how much you will earn, you already have your answer.

The arithmetic that exposes a pyramid

Convert the promise into an annual rate

Pyramids rarely quote an annual return, because it looks implausible. They usually say «1% a day», «5% a week» or «20% a month». Convert it, remembering that profit is added to the amount.

What typical promises mean over a year (with reinvestment)
PromiseMoney grows in a year byUAH 10,000 after a year
1% a day37.8 timesUAH 377,834
0.5% a day6.2 timesUAH 61,747
5% a week12.6 timesUAH 126,428
30% a month23.3 timesUAH 232,981
20% a month8.9 timesUAH 89,161
Ponzi, 1920: 50% in 45 days26.8 timesUAH 268,099
Military government bonds now1.15 timesUAH 11,516

For comparison: the state's hryvnia military bonds currently yield about 15.16% a year, and the average rate on a one-year hryvnia deposit is 14.29% before tax. The promise of «1% a day» is 243 times more generous than the state. If someone truly knew how to earn that much, in two years UAH 10,000 would turn into 14 million, and they would have no need for your money. You can see how profit on profit works in the compound interest calculator: enter a realistic rate and compare.

How much new money keeps the scheme alive

Take a pyramid that promises 20% a month and has no income at all. In month one participants pay in UAH 1 million. Paying them 20% requires UAH 200,000 of new contributions. But the new contributions also have to be serviced, so the amount the project must raise every month grows with it:

A pyramid promising 20% a month: how much new money it must raise
MonthNew contributions in the monthObligations to participants
1stUAH 200,000UAH 1,200,000
12thUAH 1,486,017UAH 8,916,100
24thUAH 13,249,475UAH 79,496,847

In two years the monthly inflow has to grow 66-fold. No advertising budget keeps up with a curve like that, which is why pyramids live from a few months to two or three years. The organisers know it and close the scheme before it collapses by itself.

A referral pyramid runs out of people

In multi-level schemes each participant has to bring in, say, five others. At the first level that is 5 people, at the fifth already 3,125, at the tenth almost 10 million. Together with all previous levels, the 11th level needs over 61 million participants, more than live in Ukraine, and the 14th over 7.6 billion, almost the entire population of the Earth. That is why most participants of any such scheme end up on the bottom levels and lose money: they paid in but had no time to bring anyone.

The stories used to explain the income

Every scheme has a story about why exactly here you can earn more than anywhere else. The stories change with fashion, but the weak spot is the same: if the method really worked, big funds and banks would have used it themselves long ago, and nobody would be looking for small investors' money.

  • Crypto arbitrage. Price differences between exchanges do exist, but they are fractions of a percent and vanish within seconds, because professional algorithms pick them off. A steady few percent a day from arbitrage is impossible.
  • An AI trading bot. A robot that is guaranteed to make money on the market does not exist. Honest algorithmic funds have losing years and never promise a fixed income.
  • Mining and «cloud capacity». Mining income depends on the price of cryptocurrency and electricity and can turn negative. A fixed daily percentage is a sign that there is no mining at all.
  • Agriculture, property, logistics. Real projects in these sectors earn once a season or a year, and the income depends on harvests, prices and demand. Fixed monthly payouts of 10% from the «harvest» or «rent» are impossible.
  • A «state programme» or «investing in a state company». The state raises money from citizens through government bonds (OVDP), which you buy in the Diia app or at a bank, and their yield is close to 15% a year. If an ad promises a «state programme» with income many times higher, check it on the official Ministry of Finance or Diia websites: you will not find it there.
  • A closed fund for the chosen few. Real closed-end funds work with qualified investors, vet them and do not look for clients on Telegram.

What it looks like in 2026

Classic pyramids with an office and contracts have almost disappeared. They have been replaced by online schemes that find people through social media and messengers. According to the NBU, in 2025 social engineering accounted for 90% of card fraud losses in Ukraine, meaning cases where people hand over money or data themselves. Investment schemes work in exactly this way.

Common schemes and how to recognise them
SchemeWhat it looks likeWhat should worry you
Telegram «expert»A channel full of luxury, «signals» and profit screenshots, then a closed group or a «personal manager»Money must go to a private person's card or a crypto wallet; profits exist only in screenshots
Fake platformA slick website or app with a personal account where the balance grows every dayNo licence in Ukraine; withdrawals are refused, and you are asked for «tax» or «insurance»
Ads featuring celebritiesA video or «news story» in which a politician, businessperson or TV presenter recommends a «state investment programme»The video is edited or AI-generated; the person's official pages say nothing about it
Paid tasksA few dozen hryvnias for likes or reviews, then «premium tasks» that require a depositTo earn more you must pay first; payouts stop after a large deposit
Online acquaintanceA new contact chats for weeks, then shares a «secret» way to earn on cryptoTalk of feelings slides into talk of money; the person never joins a video call
Tokens and «packages»Buying tokens or shares in a farm, mining or property with guaranteed incomeGuaranteed high returns and bonuses for recruits

A separate genre is «recovering lost money». After the first loss, «lawyers», «Interpol» or a «compensation department» contact the victim and promise to get the money back for an upfront fee. This is the second wave of the same scheme. How it works and what to do is covered in the article on how to check a broker.

A 10-minute check

Before you transfer any money to a project, go through a few steps. They require no financial knowledge.

  1. 1Find the legal entity and the licenceLook up brokers, asset managers and advisers in the NSSMC registers, and finance companies and banks in the NBU register. No name in a register means no right to raise money from Ukrainians.
  2. 2Scan the list of questionable projectsThe «Investor protection» section of the NSSMC website. Not being on the list guarantees nothing: new names keep appearing.
  3. 3Convert the return to an annual rateCompare it with government bonds and deposits. The higher the promise and the louder the word «guaranteed», the likelier it is fraud.
  4. 4Find out where income comes from and how to withdrawWho your counterparty is, where the contract is, where you are paying. A transfer to a private person's card or a crypto wallet is almost always fraud.
  5. 5Search the name together with the word «scam»Also check when the website was registered. A project a few months old with a «ten-year history» is an obvious fake.
Five steps that rule out most schemes. If in doubt, you can send an enquiry to the NSSMC.

In August 2026 the NSSMC list of questionable projects held 477 names. The Commission regularly adds new platforms, often the same organisers under new names. Such schemes usually have no licence and no office in Ukraine, even though they use Ukrainian phone numbers.

Red flags on the website and in the documents

Besides the five signs of a pyramid, the NSSMC has for years published signs of a questionable investment project. Most of them can be spotted without any expertise:

  • No contract with a Ukrainian company. A contract with a firm from Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Vanuatu, the Seychelles or another offshore jurisdiction, or a «public offer» without signatures.
  • Payments to a private person's card or a crypto wallet. A legal broker or fund takes money into the company's account, and its name appears in the payment details.
  • Support only in a messenger. No legal address, accounting department or company contacts you can verify, and the «manager» calls from different numbers.
  • Nobody checks you. A real financial intermediary must identify the client and ask about the source of funds. If you can open an «account» in two minutes without documents, that is a warning sign.
  • Aggressive advertising and pressure. Lots of emotion, few figures, reviews from «happy investors» and a promise that there is no risk.

How a pyramid ends

Almost all schemes go through the same stages, and they are worth knowing if you are already inside. At first everything works: payouts arrive on time, the project advertises heavily, recruitment bonuses appear. Then the promises grow, because the inflow has to be kept up: «new plans», «offer ends this week», contests for leaders.

Next come the delays. Payouts are postponed because of «technical work», a «security review» or a «platform update», and withdrawal limits and fees are introduced. Participants are often offered to swap their balance for the project's own token or move to a «new version 2.0», where the money is locked again for several months. The last stage: the website disappears, the chats are deleted, and participants are told that «hackers» or «regulator pressure» are to blame.

Why smart people fall for it

Investment fraud plays on emotions, so education and experience protect against it less than one might think. Schemes use a few predictable techniques:

  • Social proof. A chat with hundreds of people sharing payouts, reviews, «success stories». Some of the participants are run by the organisers themselves.
  • Early payouts. A person receives real money and becomes the most convincing recruiter for friends and family.
  • Fear of missing out. «Enrolment closes today», «3 places left», «the price goes up tomorrow».
  • Authority. An AI-generated video featuring a famous person, photos in front of an expensive car, «certificates» and «licences» from offshore jurisdictions.
  • Gradually rising stakes. First UAH 1,000, then «top up to the next level», «pay the insurance», «pay the withdrawal tax».

The simplest defence is the 24-hour rule. Any decision to invest that demands haste, put off for a day and discuss with someone who is not part of the project. A genuine investment will not vanish in a day. Fraudsters, on the other hand, are rarely willing to wait.

If a friend invites you, remember that they are most often a victim too, one who sincerely believes in the project. The law counts promotion as part of a financial pyramid, so earning referral bonuses may cost you more than a friendship.

If you have already sent money

  1. Pay nothing more. A «withdrawal tax», an «unlocking fee», an «insurance deposit» are ways to take even more. A real company withholds tax on your income itself and does not ask for a separate transfer.
  2. Collect evidence. Screenshots of the website, chats and personal account, wallet addresses, the card numbers you paid to, receipts. Save the links while the site is still up.
  3. Contact your bank. If you paid by card on a website, ask the bank to dispute the transaction through the payment system. The sooner, the better the chances. Transfers to another person's card are harder to dispute, but the bank may freeze the recipient if the money is still there.
  4. Report it to the police. On the cyber police website ticket.cyberpolice.gov.ua or by calling 102. Attach all the evidence and the amount of the loss.
  5. Notify the NSSMC through the enquiry form on the Commission's website. It helps get the project onto the list and protect others.
  6. Secure your accounts. If you installed apps at a «manager's» request or sent photos of documents, change your passwords, remove remote access apps and watch for attempts to take out a loan in your name.

What to do if fraudsters gained access to your card or banking app is described step by step in the article fraudsters took money from my card.

How to protect your parents and children

The most frequent victims are people with savings and little experience of online finance, and teenagers promised easy money. A few family agreements work better than any instructions:

  • no investing through messengers; an ad on social media or a phone call is never a reason to put money in;
  • before any investment above an agreed amount, for example UAH 5,000, talk it over with someone in the family;
  • transfer limits in the banking app and notifications for every transaction;
  • for children: explain that a «job» where you first have to pay or hand over your card is always a scam.

If you want your money to really work, start with legal instruments that have a licence and a clear risk. How to begin with a small amount is described in the article how to start investing.

Figures in this article

  • Projects on the NSSMC questionable list477
    August 2026
  • Military OVDP auction yield, from15.16%
    Ministry of Finance auctions, September 2026
  • Average rate on 12-month hryvnia deposits14.29%
    UIRD index, 30 Oct 2026

Checked against official sources on October 30, 2026. If a figure changes, we update the article and the «Updated» date changes automatically.

Sources

  1. Law of Ukraine «On Capital Markets and Organised Commodity Markets», Article 158 «Financial pyramids» (added by Law No. 3585-IX of 22.02.2024) (in Ukrainian)
  2. LIGA:ZAKON - the NSSMC defines 5 signs of a financial pyramid (Resolution No. 10/21/3423/K01 of 19.12.2025) (in Ukrainian)
  3. Mind.ua citing the NSSMC - the list of questionable investment projects grows to 477 (24.08.2026) (in Ukrainian)
  4. Minfin citing the NBU - #ShakhraiGoodbye campaign: 256,000 fraudulent transactions and UAH 1.4 billion of losses in 2025, 90% of losses through social engineering (13.05.2026) (in Ukrainian)
  5. Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine citing the Ministry of Finance - military bond auction yields (October 2026) (in Ukrainian)
  6. Minfin - UIRD index of 12-month hryvnia deposit rates (NBU methodology) (in Ukrainian)
  7. Smithsonian Magazine - In Ponzi We Trust
  8. US Department of Justice - Madoff's sentence and compensation for victims of his scheme
  9. NBC New York - final Madoff Victim Fund payout 16 years after the fraud came to light

This material is for information only and is not legal advice. The calculations are illustrative. Whether or not a project appears on the NSSMC list is not a final verdict on its legality: only a court decides that a fraud took place.

Spotted a mistake or an outdated figure? and we will check it against the primary source and fix it.